Abstract On August 11, the central bank realized a one-off depreciation of the exchange rate by adjusting the central parity of the RMB exchange rate. As of the 18th, the central parity of the RMB has been adjusted from 6.1162 to 6.3966, with a cumulative depreciation of 4.38%.
On August 11, the central bank realized a one-off depreciation of the exchange rate by adjusting the central parity of the RMB exchange rate. As of the 18th, the RMB central parity has been adjusted from 6.1162 to 6.3966, with a cumulative depreciation of 4.38%. In the case of the renminbi depreciation, the relevant export industry will usher in positive, and the stocks in the industry will also usher in a new development opportunity. "By actively opening the exchange rate reform, we can greatly weaken the rigid appreciation pressure of the RMB against the non-US basket of currencies, and crack the trade export pressure caused by the real exchange rate and labor price rigidity." Chen Yifei, senior analyst of Bank of Communications, said in an interview. From the principle of "J curve effect", in the second half of the year, labor-intensive exports will account for a relatively large proportion of textile and garment, light industrial manufacturing and Other industries, as well as the competitiveness of electrical equipment, automobiles and local telephone equipment. Significant improvement. For metal products such as aluminum, steel and stainless steel, the depreciation of the renminbi will also enhance the competitiveness of these export products and help to resolve the excess capacity of these industries.
According to Wind Shenwan's first-level industry statistics, after the central bank took the initiative to adjust the RMB middle price on August 11, the textile and apparel index rose 3.92%, and rose for 5 consecutive trading days. The light manufacturing index rose 1.19%. Since then, it has risen for 4 consecutive trading days. At the same time, the steel index rose 1.21% on the day, and the auto index rose 0.25% on the day.
"If the depreciation of the renminbi becomes a trending process in the second half of the year, then there will be clear benefits for the direction of upgrading from traditional to emerging, from product export to service export." Hua He Securities strategist Xue Hexiang believes that traditional industries recommend textile clothing. , home appliances, emerging recommended machinery, automobiles, raw materials (products) recommended steel, colored. At the same time, for tourism and aviation industries with clear and sustained demand for transition, the RMB depreciation is short-term negative, and the medium-term is determined by demand and continues to be optimistic.
Yang Delong, chief strategist of the Southern Fund, told reporters that the central bank’s decisive one-off devaluation strategy has greatly reduced the profit margin of arbitrage funds, leaving room for loose monetary policy and helping to stimulate export recovery. In the short term, the pressure of RMB depreciation still exists, but it will not form a long-term depreciation trend, and the RMB exchange rate will still maintain two-way fluctuations. Considering that after the plunge, investor confidence needs to recover from a market, the market trend in the next month will still be dominated by shocks and rebounds. It is possible to appropriately raise the position and focus on industries and sectors with good performance growth, such as food and beverage, trade retail, medicine, New energy vehicles, etc.
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