The main reasons for the rise in domestic coal prices are factors such as continued strong demand, sharp decline in imports, tight supply, and limited railway transportation. The high coal price has increased the cost pressure of downstream power, steel and other industries. As it is still in the off-season of thermal coal demand, experts expect coal prices to continue to rise in the next phase of demand peaks. To solve this problem, we need to take a multi-pronged approach and take measures such as appropriately constraining demand, optimizing railway transportation, ensuring resource supply, encouraging greater imports, establishing smooth circulation, trading systems and certain stockpiles. Multiple factors boost domestic coal prices in the off-season It is reported that during the "May 1" period, the price of thermal coal in the Qinhuangdao market hit a new high in the past two and a half years, reaching a price level of 805 yuan - 815 yuan / ton, breaking the 2009, In 2010, the high price record of 800 yuan - 810 yuan / ton was maintained. According to industry experts, the main reason for the rise in domestic coal prices is the continued strong demand, sharp decline in imports, tight supply, and limited railway transportation. The high coal price has increased the cost pressure of downstream power, steel and other industries. Some experts predict that coal prices are expected to continue to rise due to the current low season of demand for coal. The demand for electricity is large. Liang Dunshi, deputy secretary-general of China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, told reporters that from the perspective of supply and demand, since the beginning of this year, China's economy has grown at a faster rate and the demand for energy is relatively strong, so the demand for thermal power is also increasing. Liang Dunshi said: "This year, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian and other provinces have insufficient power output, mainly because the water volume is less than that of previous years, and it is partial. In previous years, this period has reached the flood season, while thermal power is used for peak regulation. When the water and electricity are full, the thermal power can be stopped. But this year, due to the poor water supply, the thermal power should be full, and even more powerful than in previous years.†Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces have been difficult areas for coal transportation over the years. Mainly by rail transport. Since the railway capacity has not been increased in the past two years, the new consumption demand cannot be guaranteed by rail transportation. Liang Dunshi pointed out that some coal producing areas in China, such as Shaanxi and Henan provinces, have a large increase in local coal demand. Therefore, some local governments require coal supply to preferentially meet local demand, so the coal transferred this year is relatively insufficient. Domestic and foreign prices are upside down. It is reported that since the end of last year, domestic coal prices have been slowly rising. Since April this year, coal prices have shown an accelerated upward trend. Zhou Xiujie, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Consulting, said that in the first quarter of this year, China’s electricity consumption continued to rise, and the growth rate of high-energy-consuming industries has intensified. The strong energy demand has raised the space for coal prices to rise. Zhou Xiujie told reporters that according to the current international situation analysis, it is normal for coal prices to rise. However, in the near term, the domestic electricity consumption is in the off-season. The rise in coal prices is somewhat inconsistent with previous years. “Generally speaking, there will be a round of coal price increase in the peak of electricity consumption and equipment maintenance period in previous years, and then there will be a round of price increase in the traditional coal sales season in winter. Of course, the annual market situation is different, and the coal price is also affected by many peripherals. The impact of factors." Zhou Xiujie said. Li Ting, an analyst in the coal industry of the China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center, pointed out: "Under normal circumstances, after entering the middle and late March, on the one hand, the peak of heating and power consumption in winter will gradually pass, and on the other hand, the output of hydropower will gradually rise. The thermal power generation and coal consumption for power generation tend to fall slightly, and the price of thermal coal faces a certain pressure of correction.†Tong Lixia, an associate researcher at the International Market Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that international coal prices have continued to fluctuate since this year, mainly due to The depreciation of the US dollar, inflation expectations and the overall rise in the price of bulk commodities (especially crude oil). At the beginning of the year, Australia suffered from flooding. Recently, Indonesia was affected by rainfall, resulting in a significant decline in the output and exports of the two major coal exporting countries, resulting in tight global coal supply and high prices. China's coal imports are spot purchases, and coal prices are basically in line with international standards. When international coal prices rise, domestic suppliers will also raise prices. Affected by international factors, the international coal price is now high, so China's imports have fallen sharply, and the demand for the domestic coal market has increased. As the international coal price continues to be at a high level, domestic and foreign coal prices are seriously upside down, imports have fallen sharply, and the domestic market has insufficient replenishment, resulting in an gradual widening of the effective supply gap. According to customs statistics, in the first quarter of this year, China's coal imports totaled 32.37 million tons, down 26.4% year-on-year; coal exports reached 5.78 million tons, up 1.3% year-on-year, an increase of 1.84 million tons compared with the fourth quarter of last year. 46.7%, exports showed a significant upward trend. In the first quarter, China's net import of coal reached 26.59 million tons, a decrease of 12.12 million tons compared with the same period of last year, a decrease of 31.3%. Li Ting said: "The coal import has been greatly reduced, and the export has rebounded markedly. The coal-using enterprises that used the imported coal will inevitably turn the procurement target to the domestic market again, thus increasing the domestic coal market demand and promoting the price increase." In addition, China's coal The transportation artery Daqin Railway (601006, stock bar) started the off-season maintenance in the previous period, the port coal transfer was greatly affected, the coal inventory continued to decline, and the market psychology gradually changed subtly. Now that the Daqin Railway has been overhauled, the inventory of the port has gradually recovered. In addition, the integration of coal resources in various provinces and cities is underway, and the scale has reduced the market supply. Tong Lixia told reporters: "There is another factor that is the change of the domestic industrial structure. At present, although China has sufficient coal production capacity, the distribution of production and resources is not balanced. Now the production of coal production provinces in the east is declining, and the main increase in production in the future. In the western region, such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and other regions with high production potential, this has led to an increase in the cost of coal transportation. In addition, the cost of labor including domestic labor is generally rising, which also promotes the rise of domestic coal prices. Coal prices will gradually stabilize. At present, thermal coal prices continue to be at a high level, seriously affecting the enthusiasm of thermal power enterprises, resulting in insufficient operating rates, and insufficient power supply has affected the operation of the industrial sector. Galaxy futures analyst Ma Cheng told reporters: "Because coal prices are rising, but electricity prices are not rising, thermal power companies will lose money, and power generation enthusiasm is not high, which in turn leads to the expansion of investment in thermal power companies and the lack of power of installed capacity of power generation equipment. Electricity consumption in industries such as cement is increasing substantially. However, there is no expansion of power in the motor group, and there will be bottlenecks in power supply.†Energy expert Li Chaolin pointed out that coal as a basic energy price has increased, and some power plants may be at a cost. Too high and stop, some places have a shortage of power supply, resulting in "electricity shortage", affecting factory production, residents' lives, and is not conducive to the efficient and harmonious development of the national economy. According to Zhou Xiujie’s forecast, due to the strong energy demand in China, the growth of coal production is slowing down, the effective supply is tight, and the long-term pressure on the coal industry is very obvious, driven by the adjustment of energy structure and energy conservation and emission reduction. During the time, coal prices still have room to rise. Li Ting pointed out that from a comprehensive perspective, international coal prices may break upwards in the future, and domestic coal prices will gradually stabilize after they continue to rise in May. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to fluctuate upward in the future, and the probability that the US dollar index will continue to fluctuate and weaken is still relatively large. The current bullish factors supporting international coal prices will continue to exist for a long time to come. Experts in dealing with the problem of tight supply of coal and coal in a multi-pronged approach , to solve the problem of tight supply of coal, it is necessary to adopt a multi-pronged approach, such as appropriate constraints, optimize railway transportation, ensure resource supply, encourage import, and establish smooth operation. Measures such as circulation, trading system and certain stocks are actively responded. Liang Dunshi suggested that a package of measures should be taken to deal with the tight supply of coal, and certain constraints should be imposed on the demand side to further optimize railway transportation and put forward corresponding requirements for the supply of coal resources, such as not limiting coal out of the province and encouraging foreign coal. Imports, etc. Qian Pingfan, an associate researcher at the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that a sound coal trading system, a smooth circulation system and a number of reserves should be established in China as soon as possible to solve the problems in the supply, circulation and trading of coal in China. Qian Pingfan believes that it is very important to establish a sound coal trading system. At present, China's coal trading market is still a decentralized market. The information is scattered and chaotic, and there is information asymmetry. The supply and demand are not clear. Establish a centralized market and put all kinds of information together in one place, so that you can fully grasp and understand each link and situation. “Because there is no perfect trading system, the changes in supply and demand cannot be quickly reflected. Therefore, a trading system network coal trading center should be established to predict the changes in the coal market in advance and respond quickly. Especially through the medium and long term. The spot market reflects the market demand in advance. Just like the monitoring system for managing traffic, if there is congestion, it can be timely promptly." Qian Pingfan said. The relevant units in the industry plan to establish coal trading centers in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Qinhuangdao and other places. When these trading centers play a role, monitoring will be easier. In addition, Qian Pingfan believes that establishing a smooth circulation system is also crucial. The circulation of coal in China is not very smooth, and it is easy to cause price fluctuations and contradictions between supply and demand. If local fluctuations occur, the impact on the whole will be greater. Qian Pingfan pointed out: "In China, the transportation distance between "Western Coal East Transportation" and "Northern Coal South Transportation" is very long, and the circulation is not very smooth. Under normal circumstances, the use of coal in the off-season in April is relatively normal in terms of supply and demand. What is the contradiction. This year may be because the demand is enlarged, the supply cannot keep up, and the transportation distance is too long, and the circulation system has problems.†Due to the long transportation distance in China, the “bullwhip effect†in the coal supply chain is formed. "The problem is transmitted to the back link, and in the end user, it will be magnified to a large extent, easily causing panic, thus exacerbating the contradiction. "Some places that do not lack coal also feel panic and start to smash coal, leading to changes in the market. Therefore, we should strengthen supply chain management, make the circulation more smooth, and reduce the cost of circulation." Qian Pingfan said. Qian Pingfan also suggested: "Some coal reserves should be built in several places in China. For example, in the consumption end, port, etc., once problems arise, local problems can be partially solved and will not be transmitted later. Or "receiving coal" and other measures to curb fluctuations in market prices." Li Ting, a coal industry analyst at the China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center, believes that ensuring stable growth of domestic coal production is the top priority for stabilizing the coal market. To this end, while continuing to strengthen coal mine safety production management, efforts should be made to bring mines meeting safety production conditions into production as soon as possible.
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