Unemployment data is not good Gold price or back to strong

In the first trading day of 2011, gold prices rose slightly short-term, but hopelessly broke through record highs of US$1431. After suffering profit-taking and continued to suppress, the gold prices on the five trading days in the first week of the new year were all continuing to fall sharply. In the wake of the European debt worries cooling down, a series of brilliant economic data from the United States last week pushed the dollar higher, and the rise of the US dollar was undoubtedly an important factor that made the golden price unfavorable for the start of the new year. The highest price of gold last week was 1423.8 US dollars per ounce, the lowest was 1352.6 US dollars per ounce, and it closed at 1368.8 US dollars per ounce, a sharp drop of 49.7 US dollars from the previous Friday's 1418.5 US dollars per ounce, and the weekly decline was 3.51%. The weekly K line graphic showed a delay. The five-week moving average continued to drop sharply as the long Yinxian line. Last week, the highest hardware price of 1378.7 US dollars / ounce, the lowest 1352.6 US dollars / ounce, to close at 1368.8 US dollars / ounce, a slight decrease of 2.2 US dollars over the previous trading day, the daily decline of 0.16%, the Japanese K line shows a extension of the 5-day moving average continued The 5th trading day fell below the long Yinxian.

The data released by the US Department of Labor last Friday showed that the US non-agricultural employment growth in December 2010 was less than expected, but the unemployment rate has fallen sharply since April last year, and touched the lowest level since May 2009. Unemployment in the United States unexpectedly fell to 9.4% in December 2010, hitting its lowest level since May 2009, and hitting the largest decline in more than a decade, it is expected to be 9.7%; in November 2010 it was 9.8%. However, the 9.4% unemployment rate still means that about 14.5 million Americans cannot find jobs. Since May 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate has remained above 9.0%. Despite this, the sharp drop in the unemployment rate is still good news for the US labor market and highlights signs that the economy is recovering. In December 2010, the number of private-sector employees in the United States increased by 113,000 and is expected to increase by 18,000. In November 2010, the number of private-sector employees was revised to increase by 79,000, and the initial value increased by 50,000.

Former US Federal Reserve Greenspan said on Friday that if the authorities do not take steps to reduce debt, the United States may face a bond market crisis. Greenspan said that Congress will eventually pass a budget that includes a number of proposals from the White House Work Reduction Committee. The Federal Reserve (FED)** Bernanke issued a warning to the country’s record high national debt when he testified on the US Senate Budget Committee last Friday, becoming a warning to the federal deficit after the US Treasury Secretary Geithner. A senior official. Bernanke called on the Congress and government departments to show their seriousness on the deficit issue and showed that they have enough determination to make progress in synergies. For the municipal bond market, Bernanke said: “At present, the municipal bond market is operating well and has plenty of liquidity, including a very high circulation of capital projects. As a result, we have not seen very great pressure on the municipal bond market, and investors are still We have confidence in the solvency of the major borrowers, but one of the reasons why investors have this confidence is that most state governments place a high priority on repaying debt and paying interest, which is higher than that of national and local governments. Debt priority.” As the recent economic data released by the United States improved, investors’ expectation of US economic recovery increased, and the US dollar index continued to rise strongly, while the European debt crisis has cooled, but the euro zone economic data order The frustration of the market further exacerbated the strong upward trend of the US dollar. Entering this week, the unemployment rate of the United States fell rapidly in December 2010, but the non-agricultural report did not meet market expectations. After the US dollar index has soared, we should guard against the risk of falling back. Before the non-agricultural data was released, the market generally believed that if the non-agricultural employment data was satisfactory, it would further strengthen the market’s expectation that the US economy is accelerating recovery, and some people would also think that the Fed will rethink the scale and scope of the quantitative easing program. This has also become an extremely important central factor in containing the rise in gold prices since the New Year in 2011.

Concerned about this week's important data and events are Monday's Sentix investor confidence index for the euro zone in January; US wholesale stocks and sales in November in the US, US IBD consumer confidence index in January, the British Chamber of Commerce announced a quarterly economic survey; Wednesday’s Germany's GDP in 2010, Germany's fourth-quarter adjusted GDP after seasonal adjustment, industrial output in the euro zone in November; US government budget in December, Thursday's US trade account in November, US producer price index in December, US last week Initial jobless claims, European Central Bank and Bank of England interest rate resolutions, the Fed publishes Beige Book; Friday’s Eurozone November adjusted trading account, Eurozone December consumer price index final value, US December retail sales, The United States did not adjust the consumer price index in December, the United States in December industrial output, the United States in January the University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value, the United States in November commercial inventories, the United States, the Richmond Fed** Laker made a speech.

However, last Friday’s announcement that the US unemployment rate in December 2010 hit its biggest decline in more than a decade has caused the market’s worries that the Fed will cancel the second round of quantitative easing ahead of schedule. As long as the Fed's quantitative easing plan remains unchanged, structural factors that favor the gold price have not fundamentally changed. Europe and the Bank of England will announce the January interest rate resolution and related post-meeting statements this week. Given the departure from the fundamental recovery in the Eurozone and the UK, the Euro and British pound are expected to continue their differentiation. In addition, the U.S. economic indicators are still one of the focuses of the market. Investors will use this to revise the expectations of the U.S. economic recovery and the Fed’s rate hike, as well as to comment on Bernanke’s “US economic recovery can sustain itself”. Test. As the debt crisis in Europe gradually faded in the market, concerns about the possibility of a bond crisis in the U.S. may have been unnoticed. Many favorable factors support, I believe that this wave of gold price correction is only temporary, supported by strong physical gold buying, the gold price is bound to quickly retreat from the callback to the strong. Based on the macroeconomic environment of the market, it is still conducive to a long-term strengthening of the gold price. Breaking the conflict and renewing record highs will be the core theme of the gold price. Each bargain buy will continue to be the main operation strategy for gold investment this year.