After a round of irrational expansion, China’s total energy consumption ranks first in the world. The Chinese-style economic growth model has spawned a huge energy market. At the same time, it has left behind the problems of energy structure adjustment, production and utilization, and institutional reform. China urgently needs to adjust its energy development strategy. High-speed growth of energy consumption is unsustainable. Coal-based energy structure collides with low-carbon, clean energy development. What kind of "future" should the energy industry have in 2020? Many experts and scholars interviewed by this reporter believe that in 2020, China should achieve clean and diversified energy development, optimize the economic and industrial structure, ensure reasonable production and living energy consumption, and change the extensive production to meet the rapidly growing energy demand. The world's first storm since 2005, China's energy consumption with an average annual increase of nearly 200 million tons of standard coal in 2011, the new energy consumption reached 230 million tonnes of coal. This figure is equivalent to the annual consumption of Italy or Mexico, and the total energy consumption of only 13 countries in the world exceeds this figure. "If we do not take effective measures as soon as possible, and effectively transform the extensive development mode that relies on overdraft resources and the environment, it is estimated that by 2020 and 2030, China's total energy consumption may exceed 5.5 billion and 7.5 billion tons of standard coal. This will be consumed too quickly. China's future resources will prematurely exhaust most of its development potential and seriously affect China's economic and social sustainable development." Wu Hao, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, said in a speech. The prediction of the Chinese Academy of Engineering is even more worrying: "If China's energy consumption maintains a growth rate of 8.9% in the previous years, the energy consumption in 2020 will reach 7.9 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for half of the world's total energy consumption. Even if it can continue to achieve each The five-year GDP consumption will fall by 20%, but GDP will continue to maintain a growth rate of more than 9% per year. In 2020, China's energy consumption will account for 30% of the world's energy consumption.†Corresponding to high-growth energy consumption, China's energy resource endowment is not High, the per capita possession of coal, oil and natural gas is low, only 67%, 5.4%, 7.5% of the world average. The large-scale development and utilization of fossil energy has already had a serious impact on the ecological environment. The ecological environment in some parts of China has been seriously overdrawn, and the pressure to cope with climate change is increasing. Liu Tienan, director of the National Energy Administration, pointed out that "China's dependence on foreign oil has risen from 32% at the beginning of this century to 57%. 80% of imports have passed through the Straits of Malacca, and 38% have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The energy security situation is grim.†At present, China has become the world's largest energy consumer. But unfortunately, the output value brought by a large amount of energy consumption is not high. In 2011, China's GDP accounted for about 8.6% of the world, but energy consumption accounted for 19.3% of the world. China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is 2.5 times that of the world average, 3.3 times that of the United States and 7 times that of Japan, and higher than that of developing countries such as Brazil and Mexico. “The reason is that excessive economic growth depends on fixed asset investment and export promotion, so that high-energy-consuming industries are growing too fast, and the industrial structure is unreasonable,†said Zhou Dadi, former director of the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and executive vice president of the China Energy Research Association. . The industrial structure based on the second production has swallowed an amazing amount of energy. According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, the ratio of the three industrial structures in China is 10:47:43, the energy consumption ratio per unit of added value is about 1:6:1.5, and the tertiary industry and domestic energy consumption account for 2% of the total energy consumption, respectively. %, 14% and 11%. "China needs to scientifically assess energy demand, change the model of 'over-supply to meet the needs of excessive growth,' and achieve a balance between supply and demand based on 'scientific supply to meet reasonable demand'." Du Xiangyu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said. Energy consumption should have a "ceiling" . What kind of development path should China's energy strategy adjust? The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" outlines the establishment of a safe, stable, economic and clean modern energy industry system. This is the direction of the development of the energy industry in the next five years and even in the next decade. Liu Tienan, director of the National Energy Administration, wrote that “achieving this goal requires adhering to the overall situation of both domestic and international affairs; insisting on promoting changes in energy production and utilization methods; adhering to scientific and technological innovation and institutional innovation; and always insisting on safeguarding and improving people's livelihood.†In ensuring energy supply and energy security, we must base ourselves on domestic resource advantages and development foundations, enhance supply security capabilities, actively use overseas energy resources, rationally regulate foreign dependence, and improve national energy security standards. An official from the National Energy Administration said that China's energy development mode should achieve the goal of six aspects of transformation: from the energy supply strategy of partial supply to the science to guide consumption, resource-dependent to technological innovation-driven transformation, over-reliance on coal to green diversity Development and transformation; from relying on domestic resources to paying more attention to the use of global resources and market transformation; from ecological environmental protection lag to ecological environmental protection and energy coordinated development; from the decentralized development of various energy industries to the coordinated development of systems. In the above research report, the Chinese Academy of Engineering proposed that after 2050, China will have a new energy system with Chinese characteristics, and China will enter a relatively free stage of green and low-carbon energy development. The 10 years before 2020 are the key period for the completion of the above-mentioned tasks. "The growth rate and structure of energy consumption should be significantly changed. Energy conservation, efficiency improvement, and emission reduction have achieved new and significant results, and a new energy supply and demand model has been gradually established." Du Xiangyu said. The energy strategy proposed by the Chinese Academy of Engineering is composed of six sub-strategies: First, the development of energy science must strengthen the strategy of “energy-saving priority, total controlâ€. China's energy consumption should be set up with “ceilingsâ€. Based on scientific production capacity and energy consumption targets, the total energy consumption in 2020 will be controlled at around 4 billion tons of standard coal. Second, coal science development and clean and efficient use of strategies. The Chinese Academy of Engineering proposes the concept of coal science capacity, which refers to the production of coal under conditions of safety, efficiency, cleanliness and environmental friendliness. According to scientific production capacity requirements, reasonable coal safety capacity should be controlled within 3.5 billion tons of standard coal. In 2050, the proportion of coal in total energy consumption fell below 40% or even below 35%, and its strategic position should be adjusted to important basic energy. Third, to ensure the strategic position of oil and natural gas, natural gas as one of the key points of energy structure adjustment. The strategic policy of oil is: vigorously save, strengthen exploration, scale substitution, and active import. The domestic production of oil should be controlled at around 200 million tons per year. At the same time, putting natural gas on the focus of energy structure adjustment has become one of the green pillars in the energy structure. Fourth, develop hydropower in an active and orderly manner, vigorously develop non-water renewable energy, and gradually upgrade the strategic position of renewable energy, from the current supplementary energy to an alternative energy source. The Chinese Academy of Engineering predicts that the total contribution of non-water renewable energy sources in 2020, 2030 and 2050 may reach 200 million standard coal, 400 million standard coal and 800 million standard coal respectively. Fifth, the active development of nuclear power is a long-term major strategic choice for China's energy. In 2020, nuclear power is expected to be 70 million kilowatts, making the total of nuclear energy and renewable energy account for more than 15% of total energy. Sixth, develop high-efficiency and safe (smart) power systems with Chinese characteristics, adapt to large-scale centralized and distributed development of new energy sources, power-based transformation and large-scale application of energy storage technologies. New energy will account for 15% According to the previously announced “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for energy development, by 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be 40% to 45% lower than that of 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in energy consumption will reach 15%. However, in the energy consumption structure, the proportion of coal is 70%, which is about 40% higher than the world average. Non-fossil clean energy accounts for less than 10%. Increasing the proportion of clean energy is no longer the will of a country, but a world trend. Many countries have developed clear renewable energy development strategies. The EU proposes a 20% renewable energy target by 2020. The targets for Germany, France and the UK are 18%, 23% and 15% respectively. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan proposed to meet the 20% power demand for renewable energy generation by 2020. Denmark proposes to completely rid itself of the grand strategy of dependence on fossil energy by 2050. The UK proposes a strategic goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 80% by 2050 in 1990, and establishes the status and role of renewable energy in the future energy system. In order to achieve this goal, China's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" outlines that China's non-fossil energy accounts for 11.4% of total primary energy consumption in 2015, and this indicator is included in the binding index. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†for renewable energy development proposes that by 2015, the proportion of renewable energy consumption will reach 9.5% or more. The annual utilization of all renewable energy sources reaches 478 million tons of standard coal, of which commercialized renewable energy uses 400 million tons of standard coal per year. According to the above plan, by 2015, the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation will reach 390 million kilowatts, including 260 million kilowatts of hydropower, 100 million kilowatts of wind power, 21 million kilowatts of solar power, 13 million kilowatts of biomass power generation, and renewable energy generation accounts for total power generation. 12% of the amount. By 2020, the total installed capacity of hydropower in the country will reach 420 million kilowatts; the installed capacity of grid-connected wind power will reach 200 million kilowatts, and the annual power generation will exceed 390 billion kilowatt-hours; the installed capacity of solar power will reach 50 million kilowatts, and the cumulative heat-collecting area of ​​solar thermal utilization will reach 800 million. Square meters. Zhou Da said: "In order to achieve the 15% goal, hydropower and nuclear power development can no longer hesitate. While doing ecological and immigration work, promote the construction of large-scale hydropower bases; under the premise of ensuring safety, steadily promote nuclear power construction."
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