The local investment competition, known as the local version of “four trillionâ€, continues to be hot and overweight. The day before yesterday, the Chongqing Municipal Government issued a three-year revitalization plan for major industries in the industrial sector. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the city’s industry will invest 1.5 trillion yuan to build a large-scale industrial cluster and 30 billion-level industrial clusters. The total output value exceeded 3 trillion yuan. Shanxi also staged a big investment attraction. From August to 20, the first World Shanxi Conference was held in Taiyuan, and the amount of investment has broken through one trillion yuan. In the context of “steady growthâ€, local government stimulus investment plans have been introduced one after another. From June to the end of July, the total investment of major projects launched by local governments has reached nearly 4 trillion yuan. In August, this total is still growing. A new round of investment competitions around the country "puts steady growth in a more important position", which is the general tone of the recent economic development proposed by the central government. As the external economy does not see a clear prospect for recovery, in 2012, China’s economic situation was grim. As early as April this year, the folks circulated that the central government will introduce a new round of economic stimulus plan "four trillion 2.0 version". According to the information of the NDRC website, the project approval speed has been significantly accelerated, and more than 100 projects have been approved on May 21st. However, the National Development and Reform Commission subsequently clarified that it is unlikely that a large-scale government-led expansion of investment will be used to stimulate economic growth. After the "four trillion 2.0 version" was denied, the "local version of four trillion" was hot. According to media statistics, from June to the end of July, the total investment of major projects launched by local governments has reached nearly 4 trillion yuan. Ningbo, Nanjing, Changsha, Guizhou, Jiangxi and other regions have successively announced a series of large-scale long-term investment development plans, such as Guizhou plans to launch a tourism investment plan of 3 trillion yuan; Changsha plans to invest 830 billion; Wuhan is in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†During the period, 82 traffic construction projects will be built with a total investment of 313.149 billion yuan. In August, investment continued to increase into August, and more local governments joined the investment competition. On August 20th, the Chongqing Municipal Government issued a three-year revitalization plan for major industries in the industrial sector. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the city’s industry will invest 1.5 trillion yuan to build 7 billion-dollar industrial clusters and 30 billion-level Industrial clusters, the total industrial output value exceeded 3 trillion yuan. Shanxi also staged a big investment attraction. From August 19th to 20th, the first two-day World Trade Conference was held in Taiyuan. The amount of investment has exceeded one trillion yuan, involving industries such as industry and agriculture. The completion of investment promotion has also become an important criterion for assessing cadres in Shanxi. Take Changzhi City, Shanxi Province as an example. Each county in the city should have no less than 15 investment projects per year; the county party secretary and county magistrate should introduce more than one hundred million yuan per year; 15 projects in each county must have 70% landing rate. Expert opinion: The local version of “four trillions†or the local version of “four trillions of financial risks †has aroused widespread concern. Most economists seem to be optimistic about the investment competitions that have been set up everywhere. The 2008 edition of the “four trillion†central office Part of the total GDP of the year is less than 5%. Where does the local version of the 4 trillion yuan come from? This is the most concerned issue for economists. In addition, many scholars also reminded of hidden dangers such as repeated construction, overcapacity, and increased financial risks. Lang Xianping: After a brief excitement or deeper crisis, economist Lang Xianping said bluntly on his Weibo. "This situation is like slamming a patient with a sick person. In the end, after a brief excitement, it will fall into a deeper crisis. I have to pay for the people." Yi Xianrong: Where do the huge investment funds come from? Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that among the four trillion yuan of investment in the year, the focus is on the central and western regions, but the central government's direct transfer payments are only a little stronger than a quarter. These local governments have long been debt-ridden, coupled with slow local economic growth and shrinking fiscal revenues, old debts cannot be afforded. If these local governments come to a local version of the 4 trillion investment expansion, then Chinese local governments will face huge debt risks. Zhao Xiao: Beware of repeated construction, financial risk hidden danger economist Zhao Xiao believes that compared with the previous round of the centrally-led "four trillion" investment plan has the advantages of overall arrangement, system coordination, etc., the local version of "four trillion The overall investment in investment plans inevitably has hidden dangers such as redundant construction, overcapacity, and increased financial risks. According to relevant statistics, the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan launched in the previous round has caused overcapacity in more than 20 industries, especially in industries such as steel, cement and polysilicon. In the case that the world economic situation is still unclear, this means that the excess capacity released during the current cycle is difficult to be quickly digested, and the Chinese economy may be in the stage of destocking and deleveraging for a long period of time.
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