In the fourth quarter of 2009, GDP growth will exceed 10% year-on-year, and the annual growth rate of 8% is no suspense. This is the general consensus of economists.
There is no suspense in Bao Ba. Despite the impact of the financial crisis, China’s exports have suffered a huge impact, but the government’s huge investment has stimulated rapid economic growth. To this end, economists have shown their economic performance in 2009 and 2010. An optimistic mood. All economists gave more than 8% of the data on 2009 GDP growth.
Tang Jianwei, a macroeconomic analyst at Bank of Communications, believes that the main driver of economic growth lies in the government's stimulus policies, which have led to a strong investment recovery.
Since the end of 2008, the Chinese government has implemented a new stimulus plan totaling 4 trillion yuan, and implemented a loose monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy, which has led to a significant increase in bank liquidity and total fixed asset investment. Correspondingly, GDP growth in each quarter since 2009 has continued to rise, with 6.1% in the first quarter, 7.9% in the second quarter, and 8.9% in the third quarter.
Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, analyzed and forecasted the annual GDP data based on industrial value-added data. He believes that there is a very good correlation between quarterly GDP and quarterly industrial added value. Since the industrial value added in the fourth quarter is expected to grow at around 18.2%, the fourth quarter GDP is likely to be around 11.1%. The growth rate in the three quarters was 6.1%, 7.9%, and 8.9%. The annual growth rate for 2009 is expected to reach 8.5%.
2010 growth rate or more than 10%
Another consensus among economists on GDP forecasts is that they will continue to grow rapidly in 2010, and many believe that next year's economic growth will exceed 10%.
Tang Jianwei expects that the future economic growth of the troika will show a trend of “two fast and one slowâ€. In 2010, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will moderately decline, and both consumption and export growth will accelerate, taking over the role of government investment in gradually weakening economic growth.
Puzhi Bank analysts Li Zhiping and Cheng Qingsheng have drawn the predictions of continued high growth from the historical experience of economic development. They believe that the axis of China’s economic growth rate in the past ten years or so has been around 9.9%. The experience of cyclical macro-control tells us that after the macro-economy has increased by 11%, regulatory measures have followed.
They had previously judged that the macroeconomic trend in 2010 should be high and low. In 2010, there will be no more violent and unregulated economic environment; but it will not be too weak (less than 10%). The growth rate in 2010 should be in the range of 10%-11%, with a median value of 10.5%. about.
There is no suspense in Bao Ba. Despite the impact of the financial crisis, China’s exports have suffered a huge impact, but the government’s huge investment has stimulated rapid economic growth. To this end, economists have shown their economic performance in 2009 and 2010. An optimistic mood. All economists gave more than 8% of the data on 2009 GDP growth.
Tang Jianwei, a macroeconomic analyst at Bank of Communications, believes that the main driver of economic growth lies in the government's stimulus policies, which have led to a strong investment recovery.
Since the end of 2008, the Chinese government has implemented a new stimulus plan totaling 4 trillion yuan, and implemented a loose monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy, which has led to a significant increase in bank liquidity and total fixed asset investment. Correspondingly, GDP growth in each quarter since 2009 has continued to rise, with 6.1% in the first quarter, 7.9% in the second quarter, and 8.9% in the third quarter.
Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, analyzed and forecasted the annual GDP data based on industrial value-added data. He believes that there is a very good correlation between quarterly GDP and quarterly industrial added value. Since the industrial value added in the fourth quarter is expected to grow at around 18.2%, the fourth quarter GDP is likely to be around 11.1%. The growth rate in the three quarters was 6.1%, 7.9%, and 8.9%. The annual growth rate for 2009 is expected to reach 8.5%.
2010 growth rate or more than 10%
Another consensus among economists on GDP forecasts is that they will continue to grow rapidly in 2010, and many believe that next year's economic growth will exceed 10%.
Tang Jianwei expects that the future economic growth of the troika will show a trend of “two fast and one slowâ€. In 2010, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will moderately decline, and both consumption and export growth will accelerate, taking over the role of government investment in gradually weakening economic growth.
Puzhi Bank analysts Li Zhiping and Cheng Qingsheng have drawn the predictions of continued high growth from the historical experience of economic development. They believe that the axis of China’s economic growth rate in the past ten years or so has been around 9.9%. The experience of cyclical macro-control tells us that after the macro-economy has increased by 11%, regulatory measures have followed.
They had previously judged that the macroeconomic trend in 2010 should be high and low. In 2010, there will be no more violent and unregulated economic environment; but it will not be too weak (less than 10%). The growth rate in 2010 should be in the range of 10%-11%, with a median value of 10.5%. about.
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