In the past two years, numerous updates have emerged regarding the production and expansion of amino acid manufacturing facilities both domestically and globally, with market demand showing a strong upward trend. As the industry continues to evolve, it raises important questions: What will the future supply structure of amino acids look like? How will the demand side develop? And how will these changes impact market prices?
The competitive landscape is still in flux. Prices are influenced by several factors, including the entry of new players and the expansion of existing ones. On one hand, leading companies are continuously increasing their production capacities, while new entrants are also ramping up their output, resulting in an overall rise in supply. On the other hand, enterprises lacking competitive or production advantages are exiting the market, which contributes to price volatility.
Globally, the imbalance between supply and demand has become more pronounced. China's amino acid industry is facing overcapacity, necessitating large-scale exports. Whether Chinese producers can maintain a pricing advantage will be crucial for their competitiveness in the international market.
Currently, methionine remains in a seller’s market. However, as more manufacturers enter the market and expand their capacities, the next 2-3 years are expected to bring true competition and lower profit margins.
Opportunities in application areas require close attention to how changes in downstream raw material usage affect the use of amino acids. In 2012, global cereal and soybean prices surged, significantly altering feed formulas and increasing the use of amino acids. This added uncertainty to the price fluctuations observed during that period.
With corn and soybean meal prices remaining high, the application of amino acids has become more complex. The increase in lysine and tryptophan prices in the second half of 2012 was partly due to this situation. Additionally, threonine, affected by overcapacity, saw lower prices, which encouraged further use in feed formulas. This, in turn, helped drive the growth of lysine and methionine demand.
In 2013, China’s increased capacity release put more pressure on the market, intensifying export competition and cost challenges. Lysine, threonine, and tryptophan all faced domestic oversupply, requiring exports to absorb excess production. For methionine, domestic supply capacity was expected to grow significantly in 2013, potentially reshaping the Chinese market, which has traditionally been import-dependent.
During the transition in the supply patterns of lysine and threonine, cost plays a key role in determining prices. Changes in usage value and seasonal demand will also influence market dynamics to some extent.
Overall, the amino acid industry is undergoing significant transformation, driven by evolving supply and demand conditions, international competition, and shifting cost structures. Staying informed about these trends is essential for stakeholders looking to navigate the market effectively.
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