Amino acid capacity release increases supply pressure

Boya Hexun.com: Over the past two years, there has been a continuous stream of news regarding the production and expansion of amino acid manufacturing companies both domestically and internationally, with market demand showing strong growth. What will the future supply pattern of amino acids look like? How will the demand market evolve? And how will market prices be affected during this transformation in the amino acid supply structure?

The competitive landscape is still unbalanced, and pricing is influenced by various factors.

On one hand, leading companies are continuously expanding their production capacities, while new entrants are also ramping up their output. This has led to an overall increase in supply. On the other hand, some companies lacking market or production advantages are choosing to exit the industry, contributing to price volatility. In the international market, the imbalance between supply and demand has become more pronounced. China's overcapacity in amino acids necessitates large-scale exports, and whether they have a price advantage has become the key factor in competition.

Currently, methionine remains a seller’s market. However, as the number of manufacturers increases and production capacity continues to expand, a period of true competition and lower profit margins is expected to emerge within the next 2-3 years.

Opportunities in application fields lie in keeping track of the impact of downstream raw material usage on amino acid applications.

In 2012, global cereal and soybean prices surged dramatically, causing significant changes in feed formulas and increasing the use of amino acids. This brought a lot of uncertainty to the price fluctuations seen during that period.

With corn and soybean meal prices remaining at high levels, the application of amino acids has become more complex. The rise in the prices of lysine and tryptophan in the second half of 2012 was partly related to this situation. Additionally, threonine, affected by overcapacity, saw its price drop, which encouraged further use in feed formulas, thereby promoting the growth of lysine and methionine.

2013: Increased capacity release brings higher supply pressure and intensified export competition.

Lysine, threonine, and tryptophan are all facing domestic oversupply, requiring exports to absorb excess capacity. For methionine, domestic supply capacity is expected to grow significantly in 2013. It is anticipated that the share of the Chinese market will change notably in 2013, as new production capacities from Adisseo, Sumitomo China, and Ziguang Chemical will inevitably impact the Chinese market, which has traditionally been import-dependent.

During the shift in the supply patterns of lysine and threonine, cost plays a supporting role in price dynamics, while changes in usage value and seasonal demand can drive market trends to a certain extent.

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