China's bargain-hunting international metal market

Abstract Two sources familiar with the matter revealed that China's State Reserve Bureau has acquired approximately 30,000 tons of nickel, which represents about one-sixth of the total inventory held in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. Additional insiders mentioned that in recent weeks, the China National Materials Reserve Bureau has also been monitoring copper market developments.
The China National Materials Reserve Bureau is a key player in global metal markets, known for its ability to influence price trends. In early 2009, its purchasing activities helped stabilize and eventually boost metal prices, leading to a significant upward movement over the following two years. However, since peaking in 2011, metal prices have experienced a sharp decline, with copper, nickel, and aluminum all reaching their lowest levels in recent months. This downturn has been partly attributed to concerns over China’s slowing economic growth. Market participants believe that the recent purchase by the China National Materials Reserve Bureau could signal confidence in future demand. A senior trader noted, “China’s destocking has reached a large scale, and current prices are at a level that the reserve bureau is willing to buy in bulk.” Another trader remarked, “If you follow the pattern and buy copper whenever the China National Materials Reserve Bureau purchases it, you’re likely to make a profit.” While the bureau has previously bought aluminum and zinc domestically to support struggling local producers, the recent nickel imports mark a new phase—China’s first major entry into the international market since the post-2008–09 financial crisis. These moves were executed a few months ago but remain undisclosed. Nickel prices for stainless steel production have dropped by 50% since the start of 2011, hitting $14,609 per ton last month—the lowest in nearly four years. Despite global supply, China relies heavily on low-grade nickel ore from Indonesia, where the government plans to ban such exports next year. Copper prices have also declined this year, though they remain more than double the 2008 lows. As a critical metal used in wiring and industrial applications, copper is considered strategic in China due to high domestic demand and limited local supply. Some traders speculate that the reserve bureau may be aiming to acquire between 200,000 and 300,000 tons of copper. One trader said, “The China National Materials Reserve Bureau is quietly gathering information.” Another added, “The drop in prices is exactly what they’re looking for.”

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