The environmental storm continues to keep up with the black goods.

Abstract Black goods continued the hot situation in July. On August 7, the main contract of thread and hot coil futures hit the daily limit in early trading. At the close, the main thread futures rose 6.42% to 4,079 yuan per ton, setting a new high in four years. Hot Roll Futures main contract also rose 4.4...
Black goods continued the hot situation in July. On August 7, the main contract of thread and hot coil futures hit the daily limit in early trading. At the close, the main thread futures rose 6.42% to 4,079 yuan per ton, setting a new high in four years. The main contract of the hot-rolled futures also rose 4.49% to 4030 yuan per ton, a new high since the listing. The main contracts for iron ore and coke (2081, 35.00, 1.71%) rose by 3.01% and 2.30% respectively.
According to Wenhua Finance and Economics statistics, on August 7, the total deposited funds in the commodity futures market was 114.35 billion yuan, and the outflow of funds was 580 million yuan. The net inflow index of the black chain index (including coke, coking coal, iron ore, and thread) was 190 million yuan, and the total deposited capital was 36.59 billion yuan. The total position on the day was 7.169 million hands, and the lightening of the warehouse was 373,000. Among them, the thread index has become the key species for the withdrawal of funds, with a net outflow of 900 million yuan, while iron ore has attracted a net inflow of 550 million yuan.
Gao Tong, director of Haitong Securities Futures Research, told the Shanghai Securities Journal that compared with July, the basics of black goods have not changed much. The action of stripping steel in various places is still advancing, and iron ore is still in high inventory. State, but after the fall, the infrastructure re-entered the peak season, the market is expected to increase demand for the golden autumn season, the commodity index has risen sharply last fall, this year does not rule out the re-emergence of last year's gains.
Yan Hongbin, chief black analyst of Luzheng Futures Research Institute, also told reporters that the supply-side reform of the steel industry is still dominated by the black-based commodity market. The impact of the “intermediate frequency furnace” on production capacity has caused some steel prices and some steel mill profits to reach High in recent years.
However, in August, the environmental storms continued to blow.
The Hebei Provincial Environmental Protection Department recently announced the “Special Implementation Plan for Heavy Pollution Weather Response and Heating Season Peak Peak Production in Hebei Province”. According to the plan, the iron and steel enterprises implement classified management, and according to the level of pollution emission performance, each city (including Xinji City) formulates a peak production plan. In key areas such as Shijiazhuang, Tangshan and Handan, the production capacity of steel in the heating season is limited to 50%. The limited production of coking enterprises in Hebei Province is about 30%.
According to the experts of Nishimoto Shinkansen, if the above-mentioned plan is implemented, it is estimated that the Hebei and Henan regions will reduce the supply of crude steel by about 7 million tons, which is close to 10% of the national crude steel output.
This directly triggered a big rise in steel prices in the spot market. According to the data monitored by the Nishimoto Shinkansen spot trading platform, domestic steel prices rose across the board last week, and prices in East China and North China led the country, with most market prices hitting new highs during the year. As of August 4, the average price of 25mm grade three-grade rebar in 61 major markets nationwide was 4,168 yuan / ton, up 82 yuan / ton a week.
In addition, the promotion of the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Area 2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan” also affects the market.
“In the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan 2017”, the '2+26' city involves a production capacity of about 300 million tons of crude steel. If it is strictly implemented, it will reduce the steel output by more than 30 million tons. The steel market, where supply and demand are tightly balanced and stocks are at a low level, has once again added upward momentum.” Yan Hongbin said.
Under the environmental storm, the market is expected to increase its supply contraction in the future. Yan Hongbin said that at present, the central government does not have any signs of relaxation on steel production capacity, and with the expectation of the autumn peak season and the slow progress of electric arc furnace production, black products are expected to continue to maintain a strong position. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the implementation of the production restriction policy and pay attention to prevent risks.

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