According to statistics, since 2017, China's gasoline and diesel retail prices have experienced 10 upward adjustments, 6 reductions and 7 strandings. The price of 89th gasoline and 0th diesel oil has been raised by 365 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton respectively. Each liter is raised by 0.27 yuan and 0.30 yuan respectively. Li Yang, a product analyst of Jinlian Chuangxin Oil, said in an interview with the Securities Daily yesterday that December 28 will usher in the last price adjustment window of this year. In view of the recent decline in international oil prices, after entering a new round of pricing cycle, The retail price may be lowered. However, after the middle and late period, Lido has exhausted, and the international oil price or shock has returned, so it is not possible to rule out the possibility of stranding. Jinlian's gasoline and diesel retail price forecasting model shows that OPEC's agreement to extend production cuts has been reached again during the current pricing cycle, boosting international oil prices, but it is under pressure from both US crude oil production and refined oil inventories, and international oil prices are under pressure. Falling, overall, the downward trend of crude oil shocks is obvious. As of December 8 (the sixth working day), the average price of reference crude oil is 60.22 US dollars / barrel, the rate of change -0.51%, the corresponding gasoline and diesel prices will be lowered by 25 yuan / ton. According to China's "Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Prices", domestic gasoline and diesel prices are adjusted every 10 working days according to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. The effective date of price adjustment is 24 o'clock on the release date of the price adjustment. When the price adjustment is less than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made, and the unadjusted amount will be added or offset when it is included in the next price adjustment. From this calculation, the current price adjustment window is at 24 o'clock on December 14. Zhu Huichuang, a product analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information, expects that in the short term, the crude oil in Europe and the United States will continue to fluctuate, and the rate of change will remain low. The adjustment of steam and diesel is difficult to reach 50 yuan/ton, and the current round of price adjustment is stranded. As the weather turns cooler, the demand for diesel terminals has gradually declined, which has eased the situation of diesel resources, and some of the annual tasks have not yet been completed. Oil companies will increase sales promotion. The fundamentals of supply and demand in the refined oil market are the main factors affecting their prices. At present, the wholesale price is at a high level, and the market operation risk is high. It is recommended that traders maintain reasonable stocks to reduce risks. Li Yang said that the OPEC meeting was settled and the short-term international crude oil market speculation will come to an end. The rise in US terminal refined oil supply and lower demand will keep crude oil prices low and fluctuate. The current measured retail price adjustment is still within the 50-yuan price adjustment red line. Therefore, according to the current crude oil price level, the domestic gasoline and diesel retail price adjustment may be stranded until the current round of pricing expires, but if international crude oil falls sharply Then it will face a downward adjustment.
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